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What does the future look like for open-source software development over the next 5 years?

What standards (i.e., Java, XML, Linux, etc.) do you see as being adopted by businesses for future Internet applications?

I personally feel with the world of virtualization arriving, licensing costs are going to become a much large factor in companies software purchasing decisions.

Thus I believe - at least in the server market - Linux is going to grab quite a bit of market share. When I have to pay 3000+ for each Windows Server 2003 license and I can accomplish the same thing with CentOS or some other Linux distro - it pushes me in that direction.

I think ease of development is still going to keep Microsoft on top, but they do have a problem with MONO.NET becoming much more robust. Also, MySQL is a killer database that I acutally perfer to work with over MS SQL Server. It's just as fast and scalable too.

As for Java and XML, they aren't really open-source software - more of a specification. I personally think that Java is going to be dead soon because Sun won't fully open up the source and there is talk of a GPL Java split. If that happens I think it will completely sink Java - but I'm bias because I don't like Java.

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