Internosis - knowledge management,ecommerce and project consulting
*Home>>>Project Risk

What is the projected default risk for different bond ratings?


Does anyone know where there's a table that shows the expected default risk given a particular rating by the different ratings agencies?

Just how much riskier is AA than AAA or BB than BBB?

Thanks!

There is a table here that shows the percentage of bonds downgraded from one rating to another, on 5-year corporate bonds, and the default rates on them from 1970-2001

And a paper that has a table comparing ratings and default rates.

AAA: almost zero default probability
AA: very low probability (less than 0.1%)
A: low probability of default (about 0.15%)
BBB: low/medium probability of default (lowest investment grade) (about 0.3%)
BB: medium probability of default (about 1.2%)
B: high probability of default (about 3.5%)
C: very high, about 13% probability of default.

I don't know where this (default rate) would be either. But with all the investment books out there, must be in one of them.
I do remember seeing that the expected default rate on BBB (investment grade) bonds was 5%.

Going from AAA to AA is almost double the risk. BB sounds like a pretty good grade from your schoolteacher. In bonds it's a nightmare.

Tags
  Information Technology   Technology Consulting   Project Training   Project Team   Project Control   Project Risk   Project Tools   Project Software   Project Planning   Project Consulting   Project Manager   Project Management
Related information
  • Can anyone explain this to me?

    ok... a "rar" file is simply another form of a .zip file. it's a packaged file, that has been compressed into one rar file. What you need to "unrar" a rar file is WinRar. ...

  • 2008-2009 predictions without BIAS (I'm looking @ you AFC west, NFC East posters

    AFC East: 10-6 Patriots - I have a feeling a big player will get injured and hurt them for a while, but the offense of this team is PHENOMINAL!!! Their defense is getting a little old. 7-9 Bills ...

  • I need help in a keeper league draft.

    I would definently take Palmer, you need a qb! then I would drfat two WR's. Housh would be nice, I can't see fitz being around, but definently get two more recievers. TE's will alway...

  • Can you all help me out with this survey? Please!

    ok, sure

    ...
  • Bad work experience, new job environment - fitting in?

    Your work is what you make it, the reason the other company failed could have been directly related to a losing attitude. If you want to get ahead you need to get the winning spirit and stick with ...

  • Do You Feel It Is Unfair That We Didn't Get To Vote On This?

    I don't get to vote on how my neighbors live their lives. Do you? Would you have voted against this if you could have?

    ...
  • Why is it derogatory to anyone to simply note that if "equity" legislation comes in, so that people with......

    The same could be said about people with "persistent and marked distress about" things that may or may not happen in the future. If this is about so-called "national security"...

  • Air pollution project info. easy 10 points?

    Air pollution is the human introduction into the atmosphere of chemicals, particulate matter, or biological materials that cause harm or discomfort to humans or other living organisms, or damages t...

  •  

    Categories--Copyright/IP Policy--Contact Webmaster